Desktop Applications Are On Life Support
It’s the year 1936. The first freely programmable computer — the Z1 — is being produced. With the ability to run programs from punched tape, the idea of desktop applications is forever solidified. This is now the stepping stone for all future computing, and nothing in the foreseeable future can stop it. Until now. It wasn’t too long ago when downloading applications for various operating systems was a daily occurrence for me (as was reinstalling operating systems to rid them of those applications). So imagine my surprise when I realized that I had not downloaded a Mac, Windows, or Linux application in over half a year! Not only is it interesting, but it is shocking as well, particularly when considering it has, for many years, been my job to review them. How is this possible? After all, these applications have for the longest time been necessary to exploit our computer’s full potential. If we want to create documents, we have Microsoft Office; if we want to edit photos, we have Photoshop; if we want to play games, we have StarCraft II; and if we want to do anything else on our desktop, there’s an app for that (yes, I had to say it). Yet those days are fading fast. It is inevitable.
The Most Used Apps are Browser-Based
Take a look at application usage stats from Wakoopa, a service that tracks application usage on user’s computers who opt in. Of the top ten listed, eight of those are Web-oriented programs. Windows Explorer and Microsoft Messenger are the other two. Windows Explorer, at least in my mind, doesn’t really qualify as a desktop application in this context. Microsoft Messenger, though, is fair game. Sure, these stats alone are not much as far as hard evidence is concerned, but common sense should prevail. Desktop applications are dying.
There are suitable Web-based replacements for most, if not all, desktop-based applications. If you want to create, edit, and share documents, there is Google Docs. If you want to edit photos, there is Picnik. If you want to be unproductive, there is Farmville. If you want to watch videos, there is Hulu and YouTube. The list goes on and on.
We now live in a society where constraints are regularly avoided by consumers. Where openness and mobility are king. We want software to work with us when we want it, where we want it, and how we want it. As disheartening as it might be, the desktop operating system is no longer the best solution.
New and existing platforms have been engineered to pick up where the desktop left off. The Web has advanced significantly with major developments in Flash, HTML5, WebGL, JavaScript, and other technologies. Eventually, we will be playing beautiful 3D-intensive games in the comfort of our own Web browser. Smart phones and tablets are also on the rise. Arguably, these devices will continue to experience amazing growth as the world as wireless access continues to improve. And then there are those application markets.
Eventually, I believe these application markets will become the platform itself, with hardware acting primarily as an interface to the this content. Think about it: we already have the iPhone, iPod, iPad, and iTV taking advantage of a single, unified platform, iTunes. A social network is even being built around into it. It’s only a matter of time before most of Apple’s remaining products, including Mac computers, follow suit.
Yet we still have the traditional desktop with the traditional operating system that is designed to run third-party software. Admittedly, it is still useful today. There will always be the professionals and hardcore geeks that prefer today’s way of acquiring, developing, and running applications. There is a level of customization and control that is always going to be desired by certain consumers and businesses.
Everyone else, however, won’t miss these old desktop applications. Just as I had forgotten about desktop applications, the rest of the world will, in time, move on. But until someone cuts the cord, it’ll be painful to watch.
this article is retarded.. serious production apps .. i.e. adobe cs5, audio, etc, and development apps that make the web possible.. are always going to be on desktops.. so quit dreaming author. though the next generation html 5 stuff not to mention flash and java developments lately indicate you might eventually be right but we’re far from there.
I am never going to put all my files “in the cloud”. I like services like Dropbox, then they are in the cloud, but also on all my machines. I don’t think people will ever get rid of local applications. It doesn’t make any sense. ISP’s have already tried going tiered and getting rid of unlimited use, can you imagine how much bandwidth you would use if all your applications were web based? Remember when the iPhone came out and they only have the web sdk?? That didn’t fly very well. AT&T and Verizon have already dropped their unlimited wireless plans. I am never going to make myself more dependent on them for things I can do locally with my files. I don’t see why anyone would.
Web-based apps aren’t mature enough for the enterprise yet. However, that is not to say that in the future, companies will see a benefit to moving to strong web-based apps as they mature.
But several things have to happen first.
Sure, I can go out and build an eyeOS server and deploy it in my enterprise. But it’s not perfect. Google’s offerings are ok, but I think most companies would prefer to host the apps on their own servers in their own secure environment within their own control.
Conversely, mobile computing is growing. Companies like the idea that their employees can continue to work where ever they are. But you don’t want them limited to internet connectivity. I mean, if they need to finish up a report and their home internet is down, or they’re in flight, or just simply don’t have internet connectivity for whatever reason, you still want them to be productive.
So, desktop apps on a mobile platform are a must.
This article may have been relevant 5 years ago. Now it’s just obvious. And wildly inaccurate in parts.
I couldn’t agree more with Martin D. This article is 5-10 years too late.
I don’t see desktop apps really going away as long as they offer a superior experience over the online version. Certain types of apps like email and news readers are great as online-only applications. Word processing and such is possible online but the experience is not quite there yet. But other types of apps like audio/video editing I think will remain on the desktop for a long time.
It’s funny because in my younger days we all worked on dumb terminals and there was a central server on campus. Everything was text-only then too, but it was exactly as you describe. Basically the terminals were merely a browser and all the apps existed on the server.