It’s time to call it: The Blackberry will never rise again

For the past couple of years, we have been waiting to see whether Research in Motion, the makers of the Blackberry, could rise to meet the challenge of iOS and, later, Android. And for a while, we were hopeful. Looking at RIM’s past and brand loyalty, there was much reason to believe they would succeed despite Apple and Google’s onslaughts.

But yesterday, two news stories came out that were symbols of RIM’s (probably permanent) decline. The first was that Apple has enough cash to buy the entire mobile phone industry. The second was that RIM themselves have halved their internal projections for their Playbook tablet sales.

They’re both ominous signs. The first is about just how massive the problem of competition is. And the second is that, even with a product with some promising ideas, RIM can’t deliver products people want.

But why has this happened? Let’s, sadly, perform the pre-emptive autopsy.

They’re too slow

We recently learned the reason behind the Playbook’s lack of an email app: BIS, the backbone of Blackberry’s services, can only deal with one device per user account/PIN.

That’s reasonable enough. But it’s also a sign that, in terms of broad infrastructural changes necessary to support a modern tech ecosystem and the coming of the cloud, RIM are moving at a glacial pace. And if, under such pressure, RIM isn’t able to accelerate the pace at which they innovate, then how can they move forward?

Similarly, the work on bringing the great QNX OS to their phones is taking forever. Certainly, it must be an immense amount of work. But it’s also simply taking too long, as competitors release model after model and upgrade after upgrade.

They’re too far behind

What’s worse, however, is where this slowness will leave the Blackberry.

Let’s assume that a wizard came along, waved a wand, and tomorrow the Playbook had an email and calendar app and all new Blackberry phones shipped with QNX. Where would that leave RIM?

Well, they’d have products that were maybe on par with some of the competition in some aspects. That’s it. That’s where things sit. Blackberry is months behind simply playing catchup to their competitors. What’s more, with iMessage, their primary advantage of BBM is also now damaged.

So the problem is that even if RIM can catch up, they’re still too far behind to ever get ahead of their competitors. What magic innovation of both product and ecosystem will allow them to stop the decline of marketshare? Market loyalty? Email security? Ease of use? Do these sound like problems Apple or Google will have trouble cracking i the long term, if they haven’t already?

They’ve lost their cachet

For many years, a Blackberry was a status symbol, something that told the world you were someone. That was a big deal, because with the release of the Pearl, it drove consumer adoption. No more.

There are still some people (mainly outside the US) for whom the BB holds some cachet. Mainly it’s professional creative types who want to show that they’re serious. It’s still big in the fashion world and, surprisingly, Hollywood too. After all, who doesn’t have an iPhone these days? It’s almost as if the Blackberry could be a way to differentiate yourself.

But it really hasn’t worked out that way. The coolest apps end up on iOS, while the more geeky, ‘hacker'(ish) cred goes to Android. Moreover, the desire we have for products has network effects; it spills over through social networks, both online and off. If  a Blackberry isn’t considered cool, it’s more than about ‘rep’. It’;s about purchse intent. And when your product is no longer considered cool, the only reason someone will get one is functionality. And beyond the legendary keyboard, what is there that a Blackberry does that another phone doesn’t?

They have no ideas

So, let’s pull out our wizard again and wave an imaginary wand and say Blackberry was perfectly on par with Apple and Google. So then what? What vision is there for a Blackberry phone or tablet? Is it an interface vastly better than iOS? Is it for an openness more welcoming than Android? Is it the cloud? Is it a seamless media experience?

What overall dream is there for the Blackberry brand that will make it a compelling alternative to other devices? So far, all I can think of is “the keyboard”, and when your key advantage is something very easily replicated, you’re doomed.

Solutions?

Are there any options? Any hope for Blackberry? Almost certainly not. Still, it’d be wrong to present a post like this without some possible avenues, if nothing else, just for discussion.Whether or not these are doable or feasible is a question I shall leave for you to answer in the comments.

1. Once again, court the high-end. The iPhone has become the smartphone everyone has. If Blackberry can regain their status among tastemakers, whether through design or for-pay cloud services, it may help reverse their fortunes.
2. Produce an integrated, seamless media experience that is less restrictive and device-specific than iTunes. It’s true Google is moving into this space with Google Music and movies on YouTube, but if RIM can actually provide a compelling media argument, the consumer will have  reason to listen.
3. Play up the keyboard. If it’s your only (fragile, limited) advantage, you may as well promote it.
4. Arrange a single data plan for multiple devices with major global carriers. Learn from Apple: make things easy for the user.
5. Sacrifice a large sea animal to the gods or create a CEO mega zombie from the body parts of history’s smartest people. Look, I said I was reaching here.

Is there any hope for RIM? No. But if you disagree (or strongly agree!) hit the comments and let us know.